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As we move into the final months of 2025, the Central Texas economy continues to show both resilience and transition. While national and regional growth has moderated, our local markets remain active and positioned for steady progress.

Key takeaways:

• Steady Growth: Economic activity remained mostly flat this quarter, with modest loan demand and cautious business outlooks.

• Housing Stability: Closed home sales rose 6.7% year over year, and median prices held at $420,000, reflecting renewed buyer confidence.

• Community Development: Projects in Taylor, Hutto, Georgetown, and San Marcos continue to strengthen local growth and opportunity.

Economic Overview

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ October Beige Book, economic activity across the Eleventh District was largely unchanged in recent months. Manufacturing slowed slightly, non-financial services saw a minor contraction, and retail sales softened. However, loan demand rose modestly, and credit conditions for residential real estate loans showed signs of easing.

Businesses across Central Texas continue to navigate uncertainty driven by inflation, tariffs, and domestic policy shifts, but many remain optimistic about the months ahead.

Labor and Prices

Employment across Texas dipped modestly as companies maintained cautious hiring practices. Wage growth has been modest but steady, with firms projecting a slower pace—around 3.4%—for the year ahead. While manufacturing prices have risen due to tariffs and supply pressures, the service sector has experienced more stability, keeping overall inflation moderate.

Housing and Construction

Central Texas housing showed renewed strength this quarter. According to Unlock MLS, closed sales in the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos metro area rose 6.7% year over year in September, with median prices holding at $420,000. The data points to sustained buyer confidence and balanced market conditions as interest rates begin to ease.

Builders continue to offer incentives to attract buyers, but new home starts have slowed slightly as inventory levels remain elevated. Commercial real estate, meanwhile, remains active—particularly in industrial and retail sectors—supported by continued development throughout Williamson and Travis counties.

Local Development Highlights

Several major projects are shaping the region’s future growth:

• Taylor: Forterra Developers announced plans for a 100-acre development adjacent to the Samsung site, featuring industrial, retail, and residential components.
• Hutto: Colovore is moving forward with a $500 million data center, highlighting continued investment in Central Texas technology infrastructure.
• Georgetown: Two master-planned communities—Lakeside Estates and Heirloom—are slated to add thousands of new homes, parks, and retail space beginning in 2026.

Agriculture and Energy

Agricultural conditions remain favorable, with strong yields for spring crops and one of the best cotton harvests in several years. However, commodity prices remain below profitable levels for many growers. In energy, drilling activity held steady, though producers expressed concern about low oil prices and rising input costs heading into 2026.

At Citizens National Bank, we remain focused on supporting the businesses, families, and communities that make Central Texas strong. As local development continues and market conditions evolve, our experienced team of lenders is here to provide the financial partnership and insight needed to move forward with confidence.

Reach out to a CNB lender to discuss how these trends impact your business or personal goals. We’re here to help you build your future with local insight and a personal approach.

For more details, check out the full report here.